Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 12 Betting Market Movers: Vikings -2.5 vs Patriots a Thanksgiving gift?

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass for a touchdown against Buffalo Bills cornerback Dane Jackson (30) during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

PFF Greenline likes the Giants -9.5 at Cowboys: But holding out for an even better number looks like the best way to cash this bet on Thanksgiving. 

• Vikings -2.5 vs Patriots looks like a gift on Thanksgiving, per Greenline: The takes regarding both offenses will be hot after ugly Week 11 showings. Remember, Minnesota has the better quarterback and better overall offense.

Chargers-Cardinals o47.5 is intriguing: The real play could be on the total going over 47.5. If both teams receive some positive injury news, it will push the offenses even further ahead of the defenses in this matchup. 

Last updated: Nov. 22, 12:45 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 6 mins

The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 12 have been at critical points in the past.

Away Team Home Team Preseason Spread Lookahead Spread Week-of-Open Spread Current Spread
BUF DET 8 9.5 9.5 9.5
NYG DAL -7 -7 -7.5 -9.5
NE MIN -1.5 -3.5 -3 -2.5
TB CLV 3.5 3.5 3 3
DEN CAR 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
HST MIA -7 -9.5 -11.5 -12.5
CHI NYJ -2.5 -3.5 -5.5 -4.5
CIN TEN 0 1.5 2.5 1.5
ATL WAS -5 -3.5 -3 -4.5
BLT JAX 4 3.5 4 4
LAC ARZ 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
LV SEA 2 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5
LA KC -2.5 -10.5 -14 -14.5
NO SF -4 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5
GB PHI 0 -6.5 -6.5 -7
PIT IND -4.5 -3 -2.5 -2.5

 

Another valuable datapoint often is the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 12.

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
Isaiah Simmons ARZ LB shoulder https://twitter.com/CamInman/status/1594881848013987842
Rondale Moore ARZ WR groin Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/CraigAZSports/status/1594868694462496770
Kyle Pitts ATL TE Torn MCL Season Ending https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1594748263940227072
Kyle Hamilton BLT S knee https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1594766359744942080
Miles Boykin BLT WR oblique https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1594451062349770752
Ronnie Stanley BLT LT ankle https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1594766359744942080
AJ Epenesa BUF ED ankle Questionable https://twitter.com/TheBillsWire/status/1594401705243906048
David Quessenberry BUF RT foot https://twitter.com/agetzenberg/status/1594450800620732416
Mitch Morse BUF C foot https://twitter.com/JaySkurski/status/1594449750899785729
Cory Littleton CAR LB foot Questionable https://twitter.com/josephperson/status/1594767118570033156
Justin Fields CHI QB shoulder DTD to Season Ending? https://twitter.com/TheBearsWire/status/1594792989381070853
Kyler Gordon CHI CB evaluated for concussion https://twitter.com/patrickfinley/status/1594428611632988161
Trevis Gipson CHI ED leg https://twitter.com/LarryMayer/status/1594403380457537538
Joe Mixon CIN RB concussion protocol https://twitter.com/KelseyLConway/status/1594782566183505921
Ethan Pocic CLV C knee Multiple Weeks https://twitter.com/ScottPetrak/status/1594746506925543425
Anthony Barr DAL LB hamstring Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/calvinwatkins/status/1594804091494227968
Micah Parsons DAL ED knee/ankle DNP https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1594844059851374592
Chase Edmonds DEN RB ankle sprain Multiple Weeks https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1594764613018472448
Evan Brown DET RG https://twitter.com/thelionswire/status/1594405638737723395
Jeff Okudah DET CB concussion Out Thursday https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1594708087046373378
Isaiah Rodgers IND CB head https://twitter.com/JoelAErickson/status/1594417984059097094
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB ankle Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/TheChiefsWire/status/1594562741649526784
Jaylen Watson KC CB https://twitter.com/TheChiefsWire/status/1594562741649526784
Juan Thornhill KC S https://twitter.com/TheChiefsWire/status/1594562741649526784
Kadarius Toney KC WR hamstring https://twitter.com/NYPost_Schwartz/status/1594682441163325441
John Wolford LAC QB neck https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1594838066102996993
Kenneth Murray LAC LB stinger DTD https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1594805907501723648
Matthew Stafford LAC QB concussion protocol https://twitter.com/TheRamsWire/status/1594826024390369280
Mike Williams LAC WR ankle DTD https://twitter.com/JeffMillerLAT/status/1594805953089572864
Nasir Adderley LAC S thumb https://twitter.com/HayleyElwood/status/1594538882678169601
Davante Adams LV WR https://twitter.com/PGutierrezESPN/status/1594449988880416770
Akyaleb Evans MIN CB concussion https://twitter.com/christomasson/status/1594807933849706513
Andrew Booth MIN CB knee DTD https://twitter.com/christomasson/status/1594807933849706513
Christian Darrisaw MIN LT concussion https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1594465179492044800
Dalvin Tomlinson MIN ED calf https://twitter.com/christomasson/status/1594807933849706513
David Andrews NE C thigh https://twitter.com/PhilAPerry/status/1594640746631626752
Isaiah Wynn NE RT foot https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1594420061581852681
Marcus Jones NE DB ankle https://twitter.com/PhilAPerry/status/1594429328632303623
Trent Brown NE LT illness https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1594682134207275011
Payton Turner NO ED ankle Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/status/1594742584668307456
Adoree Jackson NYG CB knee https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1594430759858749445
Fabian Moreau NYG CB ribs https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1594419435154309120
Jason Pinnock NYG S jaw https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1594434840132259840
Jon Feliciano NYG CB neck https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1594430759858749445
Tyre Phillips NYG RT neck https://twitter.com/RalphVacchiano/status/1594418497026670593
Wan'Dale Robinson NYG WR knee https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1594430759858749445
Michael Carter II NYJ CB chest https://twitter.com/antwanstaley/status/1594431403361460224
Nate Herbig NYJ G shin https://twitter.com/RichCimini/status/1594662963323232256
Quincy Williams NYJ DI ankle Questionable https://twitter.com/andy_vasquez/status/1594404603897868288
Jaylen Warren PIT RB hamstring https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1594451062349770752
Tyre Phillips RT RT neck Questionable https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1594400978878582785
Charvarius Ward SF CB groin https://twitter.com/Eric_Branch/status/1594878635403460611

 

Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 44.5)

Giants are reeling after being decimated by injuries in Week 11: And now they travel on a short week to visit the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Big Blue's secondary, specifically, is going to be stretched thin, and offense, Darius Slayton must continue performing well above career expectations to  help the Giantskeep pace with a Cowboys offense now hitting its top stride. 

The betting market moved accordingly, with a -7 lookahead likely testing -10 by kickoff: There’s a case to be made for the Giants at the inflated number — especially if any number of the Cowboys' injuries to edge rushers prove to be more serious than initially anticipated.

PFF Greenline likes the Giants at the current number: But holding out for an even better number looks like the best way to cash this bet on Thanksgiving. 

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings (-3, 42.5)

The Patriots and Vikings both exited Week 11 beat up along the offensive line: The shortened week is going to impact both units, as Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw, Patriots C David Andrews are out, with New England holding its breath on the statuses of Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn

The betting market seems torn on where this spread should land: With -2.5 and heavy juice on the Vikings popping up at some books, while others flip the juice the other way and hang onto -3.  

Laying -2.5 with Vikings looks like a gift on Thanksgiving based on PFF Greenline: The takes regarding both offenses will be hot after they looked like the worst versions of themselves against elite-level defenses in Week 11. Remember, Minnesota has the better quarterback and better overall offense.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, 47.5)

Two teams desperate for a win, but seemingly heading in opposite directions face off in this cross-conference matchupLos Angeles showed enough offense early in its close loss to the Chiefs to warrant heavy line movement its way, especially after the Cardinals folded over on Monday night. The -2.5 lookahead and opening week number quickly moved to -4.5, with further movement likely in the Chargers' direction if Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and WR Marquise Brown can't return from multi-week absences.

Chargers injury outlook can only improve: As their offense would receive a significant boost if either TE Gerald Everett or WR Mike Williams return.

Over intrigue: The real play could be on the total going over 47.5. If both teams receive some positive injury news, it will push the offenses even further ahead of the defenses in this matchup. 

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets (-4.5, 39.5)

QB2 battle? Early-week reports on Justin Fields are perplexing to say the least, with Matt Eberflus at one point saying Fields is “day-to-day,” before uttering in his next breath that it might be season-ending. Meantime, Jets HC Robert Sales for the first time this season failed to commit to embattled Zach Wilson, opening the door for Joe Flacco or even Mike White to take over the reins.

It’s safe to assume the Jets defense could win this game itself if Fields is unavailable: Either QB option they choose would be better Zach Wilson, which is what the betting market is signaling after pushing this spread from -3.5 on the lookahead out to -4.5. Initial concerns about Fields' injured left shoulder caused the number to reach -5.5, but there seems to be enough likelihood that he plays to push this number close to where it opened Week 12.

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