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Best QB props for Super Bowl 57: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during his pregame ritual prior to the AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

No position takes center stage in the Super Bowl quite like quarterback. And the quarterback betting prop menu appears endless. Let’s set up initial baselines for this signal-caller matchup between the Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes and the Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts, then touch on some novelty props before scanning for value using PFF’s play-by-play simulation.


QUARTERBACK MATCHUP RANGE OF OUTCOMES

It obviously starts with Patrick Mahomes. Lock in an easy winner when he’s the first quarterback shown during the national anthem (-160) — because he’s the only one in the league capable of winning this matchup with an upper-bound performance. There is roughly a 10% chance of a ceiling-outcome performance where Mahomes is so brilliant it really doesn’t matter what the Eagles do.

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